How much is programming going to change in the next few years?

Programming is going to change dramatically, probably by 2020, which is not that far away. New languages and techniques are in the lab now that will trim the fat out of the development process. Currently programmers think they spend most of their time designing and typing, and estimate that debugging is perhaps 20–25% of the total effort. In reality, design, typing, and compiling are very straightforward, and 85% or more of the total effort is spent debugging and refining the software. The debugging process, which to be completely honest is the programmer fixing their own problems - is a huge area of waste, and finally techniques and tools are in the pipeline to shortcut that process. The net result will be about a 3:1 overall improvement in productivity (because debugging will cease to be difficult), but more importantly a 10:1 reduction in the frustration level one must endure to tolerate being a programmer.

The world of programming is currently populated by people with incredible, far out on the tail levels of patience; the kind of people who can do a 7000 piece jigsaw puzzle and enjoy it, while the ordinary person would give up. The lowering of this “frustration barrier” will allow millions of ordinary people to enjoy programming. Let’s face it, the computer is mankind’s most powerful and interesting invention, and everyone should have some fun with it. It is intensely satisfying to see a robot follow your instructions exactly, tirelessly, with no whining like your kids ;->

As for where this improvement is going to originate from, it isn’t going to come from academia, which refuses for the most part to build practical, useful tools, and will come from small entrepreneurial teams funded by themselves, angel investors, or crowdfunding. I can’t tell you how many academics flat out refuse to talk to industry people, as they live inside a bubble which is based on the status from publishing into journals that they only read among themselves. The academic world couldn’t be more corrupt and dysfunctional than it is in 2018. The cost-effectiveness of conventional colleges is abysmal, and if you look at graphs like:

College Tuition and Fees vs Overall Inflation

you will see the unsustainable trajectory that they are on. Another area where improvements won’t be coming from are large companies like Apple and Facebook, which profit mightily from things staying exactly as they are, and also in large companies, a disruptive technology like this would invalidate and seriously depreciate their multi-billion-dollar codebases, so even if it was invented there, it would not see the light of day.